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Friday, 23 February 2018

CAPITALSTARS NEWS UPDATE: The week that was, Nifty snaps 3-week losing streak - 24 Feb 2018


The IT sector outperformed during the week after Nasscom projected that the Indian IT services industry is expected to grow at 7-9% in FY19.


CAPITALSTARS NEWS UPDATE


After going through a dismal February series, indices have welcomed the March series on a positive note as benchmarks find some relief from the relentless selling seen in the past three weeks. Fears of more than three rate hikes by the Fed seem to have deteriorated bringing down bond yields which triggered a relief rally.  

The IT sector outperformed during the week after Nasscom projected that the Indian IT services industry is expected to grow at 7-9% in FY19. Besides, Sun Pharma stole the limelight amid USFDA Halol plant inspection. The stock shot up on Friday despite U.S. drug regulator issuing a Form 483 with three observations.

Meanwhile, India’s trade deficit hit a 56-month high in the month of January. A 9% rise in exports at US$24.3bn was outweighed by a 26% rise in imports which stood at US$40.6bn. This has left a trade gap of US$16.3bn, the highest since May 2013.

On the other hand, Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India increased by a marginal 0.27% to US$35.9bn during the April-December period of the current fiscal,


For the week, Nifty and Sensex marginally gained by 0.4% each.


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Thursday, 22 February 2018

CAPITALSTARS OPENING BELL - 23 Feb 2018

CS OPENING BELL:

CAPITALSTARS OPENING BELL


NIFTY SPOT UP 35 @ 10417
SENSEX UP 119 @ 33937
BANK NIFTY FUTURES UP 171 @ 25156

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!!!

CS NIFTY FUTURES (FEB ) OVERVIEW


TREND BULLISH
RES2: 10520
RES 1:10450
SUP1:10350
SUP2:10300

CS BANK NIFTY FUTURES (FEB ) OVERVIEW


TREND BULLISH
RES 2: 25350
RES 1: 25250
SUP1: 24920
SUP2: 24820

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CAPITALSTARS NEWS UPDATE: 10 stocks with highest EPS growth potential in FY17-19 could give up to 40% return - 23 Feb 2018


Return on Equity indicates profitability of a company by measuring how much the shareholders earned for their investment in the company. The higher the percentage, the more efficiently equity base has been utilized, indicating a better return to the Investor.

CAPITALSTARS NEWS UPDATE

Hit by a global rout in equities post Budget, the S&P BSE Sensex plunged over 2500 points or little over 7 percent from its peak of 36,443 recorded last month. With such sharp fall in the index, many stocks have corrected 20-30 percent in the same period but are displaying strong growth in earnings.

After a period of flat earnings over FY14-17, we see a semblance of a recovery, with earnings growth estimated at 22 percent for 2HFY18 and 25 percent for FY19, Motilal Oswal said in a report. However, earnings from SBI, Tata Motors, Lupin and ONGC dented sentiment.

Earnings downgrade/upgrade ratio moderated QoQ in which 65 companies’ saw earnings cut of over 3 percent (58 in 2QFY18) and 43 companies saw earnings upgrades of over 3 percent (49 in 2QFY18). The upgrade/downgrade ratio weakened from 0.84x to 0.66x, said the report.

Markets will continue to give a premium valuation to businesses with high growth visibility, strong return on equity (ROE) and complemented by high standards of corporate governance, suggest experts. Investors should look at stocks which high earnings visibility in the next 1-2 years.

“Future potential of the company is more important than past performance. However, an investor must first judge the capability of the management to en-cash on opportunities which lies ahead of them and projected by them,” Saurabh S Jain, MD, SSJ Finance & Securities told Moneycontrol.

“Companies which are projected over a reasonably long period of time to generate above-average earnings growth and cash flows, supported by high ROE’s, will naturally command higher earnings multiples,” he said.

Return on Equity indicates profitability of a company by measuring how much the shareholders earned for their investment in the company. The higher the percentage, the more efficiently equity base has been utilized, indicating better return to investor.

A recent report by domestic brokerage firm highlighted 10 stocks which are displaying high ROE for FY18. The list includes stocks like Oberoi Realty, Rain Industries, Quess Corp, Hindalco, Tata Motors, Vedanta, Delta Corp, M&M Financial, Escorts, and Avenue Supermarts.

Motilal Oswal expects Hindalco to hit a target of Rs344 in the next one year which translates in to an upside of 40 percent, followed by Quess Corp which should give a return of over 30 percent, and Tata Motors which was a laggard in the last one year could see a rally of about 37 percent in the next 12 months.


The important differentiator which makes these stocks stand out is the EPS CAGR which has been growing at a healthy rate of 40-60 percent. The brokerage firm expects the rate to continue for the period starting from FY17-FY20.

“EPS CAGR is an important driver to predict the future direction of the company. Companies with high EPS CAGR is considered as a good combination for predicting the future prices and movements of the company for valuation aspect. Some of Such companies are Oberoi Realty, Tata Motor, Hindalco and Quess Corp,” Ritesh Ashar – Chief Strategy Officer, KIFS Trade Capital told Moneycontrol.

“When you compare the EPS history with the stock price history, it helps you determine the most likely future direction of the stock price. CAGR is a much bigger factor which will add to a spike in prices. Growth is all we need. A company with great growth potential (CAGR) is considered as one step ahead of the company with High EPS,” he said.

What should investors do?


Investors who are looking for value at current levels even if the stock has corrected in double digits should go for companies which are showing higher earnings growth.

Apart from looking at ROE and PE multiple of the company one can adopt PEG (forward PE to Growth rate) ratio to arrive at a common metric for measuring company valuations to their projected growth rates, suggest experts.

As a simple illustration, a company whose PE ratio is 25 and projected earnings growth is 30%, would give a PEG ratio of 0.83 which would imply that the company is being valued at 0.8x its future growth rate.

Companies with high growth rates, merely applying the PE ratio alone may not be appropriate and the PEG ratio acts as a good common barometer. As a thumb rule, businesses with growth visibility and having PEG ratio of less than 1, would be considered to be reasonably valued and may be bought with a long-term perspective,” said Jain of SSJ Finance & Securities.

“Companies with good management like Super Avenues Ltd. (DMart) and Titan Ltd. which demonstrate high visibility of future earnings growth and cash flows over a long period of time are seen to have higher PEG ratios,” he said.

However, some analysts say that too much excel sheet projections/forward earnings multiples are harmful for investors and a periodic review of investments is necessary.

“Many times when current valuations are stretched, analysts try to justify them by quoting forward multiples which on the face of it suggests that current valuations are rich enough for one to be cautious,” Jimeet Modi, CEO, Samco Securities told Moneycontrol.

“Looking at one year forward multiple is still ok but going beyond that is an exercise of prediction in which majority fail,” he said.

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CAPITALSTARS PERFORMANCE - 22 Fed 2018


CAPITALSTARS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE:


CAPITALSTARS PERFORMANCE

PREMIUM FUTURES:

BUY APOLLOHOSP FUT 2 TGT 

NIFTY FUTURES:

BUY NIFTY FUTURE SECOND TGT 
INDEX OPTION CALL
BUY NIFTY  10350 CALL 1 TGT 

OPTION

BUY KOTAKBANK CALL 1060 FIRST TGT BOOKED  

OPTION PREMIUM

BUY TCS CALL 3100 BOOKED 2 TGT 

STOCK CASH
STOCK CASH INTRADAY

BUY IPCA LAB  IN CASH 2 TGT 
BUY MOTILALOFS IN CASH 2 TGT ALMOST 


STOCK CASH  PREMIUM:

BUY IPCALAB IN CASH 2 TGT  
BUY APTECHT IN CASH ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW 
BUY DMART IN CASH 2 TGT 
BUY BHARATFINANCE IN CASH ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW 

STOCK SUPER CASH PREMIUM

BUY GRUH IN CASH 3 TGT ACHIEVED  
BUY BIOCON IN CASH 1 TGT BOOKED AND HOLD 
BUY KEC IN CASH ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW
BUY NCC IN CASH ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW
BUY POWERGRID IN CASH ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW 

EQUITY KING CALL

BUY CHOLAFIN FUT BOOKED FULL PROFIT NR  1382  
BUY COALINDIA FUT FINAL TGT ACHIEVED 
SELL ACC FUT ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW  

OPTION STRATEGY

BUY ITC 280 CALL MARCH ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW 

HNI CASH CALL

BUY BIOCON IN CASH ALMOST NR FINAL TGT 635 HIGH  629 

HNI FUTURE CALL

SELL ICICI BANK FUT ON HOLD FOR TOMORROW 
HNI OPTION CALL

CPE  FUTURE CALL

SELL BAJAJ FINANCE FUT BOOKED FULL NR  1393.30
BUY CHOLAFIN FUT BOOKED FULL PROFIT NR  1576.9
SELL SIEMENS FUT BOOKED 50% AND HOLD 


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Wednesday, 21 February 2018

CAPITALSTARS OPENING BELL - 22 Feb 2018

CS OPENING BELL:


CAPITALSTARS OPENING BELL


NIFTY SPOT DOWN 46 @ 10350
SENSEX DOWN 124 @ 33718
BANK NIFTY FUTURES DOWN 85 @ 24842
HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!!!

CS NIFTY FUTURES (FEB ) OVERVIEW

TREND BEARISH
RES2: 10430
RES 1:10360
SUP1:10300
SUP2:10250
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316690000

CS BANK NIFTY FUTURES (FEB ) OVERVIEW

TREND BEARISH
RES 2: 24980
RES 1: 24880
SUP1: 24785
SUP2: 24685


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MORNING MAIL: Markets expected to be volatile ahead of Feb Expiry - 22 Feb 2018


Indian Indices: 

CAPITALSTARS MORNING MAIL

The Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open on a negative note today amid muted trend in Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange and soft cues from other Asian peers.  negative SGX Nifty Index Futures for February delivery, which were trading at 10,357, down by 45 points or 0.43%at 11:24 AM Singapore time, signalled a flat to negative opening for the domestic equity bourses. Volatility is likely to remain high in today session as traders will roll their position from February series contract to March series contract on expiry today.


On the Economy front


The markets may react to a report that India's economic growth is likely to be in the range of 6.5-7 percent this fiscal. Further, EPFO lowered the rate of interest on employees provident fund to 8.55% for 2017-18, from 8.65% in the previous fiscal.

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDUP (DOMESTIC)


Snapping three day losing streak, the Indian equities ended higher on Wednesday, undermining weak cues from Asian peers, led by 
rally in IT and Teck stocks after Nasscom said the country’s IT exports could grow between 7 and 9 per cent in 2018-19


Global Market:

Asian markets are also trading mixed at present. Nikkei is currently down 1.25%, Hang Seng is trading 1.12% lower, while Shanghai Composite is up 1.40%.

US Markets: Wall Street witnessed selling pressure in yesterday’s trade. The Dow fell 0.7% to 24,797.78, the Nasdaq dipped 0.2% to 7,218.23 and the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 2,701.33. The lower close on Wall Street came as traders expressed concerns after the minutes of the Fed's January meeting indicated the central bank still plans to raise interest rates three times in 2018.


Major Headlines of the day:


Bhushan Power lenders ask Tatas to revisit conditions, The consortium of lenders to Bhushan Power & Steel has asked Tata Steel to waive certain conditions in its offer for the company.
Tata may sell auto components unit Tata Auto Comp Systems, Tata group is planning to sell its automotive parts manufacturing company Tata Auto Comp Systems Ltd, reports Mint. The group is currently in talks to hire an investment bank to manage the sale.
United Spirits set to auction Mallya’s Mumbai house, United Spirits Ltd is set to invite bids for its sea-facing mansion called Niladri on Napean Sea road in South Mumbai, reports Mint. Former chairman Vijay Mallya has often used the property, priced at around Rs300 crore, as his Mumbai residen.


Trend in FII flows: 

The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -1214.18  the cash segment Thursday while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 1375.48 as per the provisional figures.


Securities in Ban For Trade Date 22-FEB-2018:

1.BALRAMCHIN
2.FORTIS
3.GMRINFRA
4.IFCI
5.JISLJALEQS
6.JPASSOCIAT


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CAPITALSTARS NEWS UPDATE: Top stocks in focus: Ambuja Cements, Auro Pharma, UCO, BoI, Cyient - 22 Feb 2018


These companies will be in focus during trade today based on recent and latest news developments.

CAPITALSTARS NEWS UPDATE

Hatsun Agro board approved raising up to Rs550cr via rights issue.

Cyient board approved reduction of non-resident investment from existing 100% to 49%.

UCO Bank to raise Rs6,507c via preferential issue to the government.

Allahabad Bank has Rs517cr exposure to Rotomac group companies.

Bank of India says Rotomac loan turned NPA in FY16, made full provision.

Vardhman Special Steels raised Rs50cr via QIP.

Mahindra Logistics opened its largest multi-user facility in Chakan, Pune.

RIL, M&M, Adani Group announce investment plans for Uttar Pradesh.

NCLT adjourns SBI's insolvency plea vs. Videocon to Mar 27.

NCLT starts insolvency proceeding vs. Wind World on IDBI Bk plea.

Insolvency professional seeks bids for Ruchi Soya resolution plan.

IRDAI imposes fine on Kotak Bank for ING Vysya-related case.

Lupin launches generic of Namenda XR capsules in US.


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